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Author: Bob Aggarwal Article source: http://www.procappersweekly.com/. Used with author's permission.
NFL Bye weeks have been a huge question for cappers and bettors alike since the NFL began using them in the mid 1980's. Common sense would tell you clubs coming off bye weeks have had an extra week of rest to recover from the brutal NFL schedule and an extra week for their coaching staff and team to prepare for an opposing team who has had only one week to get ready to rumble. Of course we all know common sense is not exactly the straight way to the winners circle in the NFL. In fact, after digging into this issue some more, the results will amaze you as the off time may not be so beneficial after all.
Year by Year…
In the 2000-2001 season, the year of the Rams, NFL teams coming off a bye week were a dismal 12-17-1 their first game back against the posted line. That's a terrible winning percentage of just 40%. Moving on, in the 2001-2002 season clubs coming off the bye week were still not profitable their first game back as they boasted a 14-17 mark vs. the number. Notice a trend here? In the 2002-2003 season the bye week teams' record the following week was still a losing 15-16-1. The 2003-2004 was the only season during our 5 year study that produced a profitable record when betting on teams coming off the week. That mark was still minimal at 16-15-1 vs. the spread number. Last year resorted back to the same numbers we discovered in the 2000-2003 seasons, as teams were just 15-17. Overall, the last 5 years NFL teams coming off bye weeks were a dismal 69-85 against the spread.
When we dug further, we found out that teams listed as favorites coming off the bye week were 41-47 against the spread for a winning percentage of just 46%. Underdogs were an equally dismal proposition at 26-36 against the spread for a lower win percentage of just 41%.
Our numbers surprise some, but overall they actually make perfect sense. The betting public has the perception that teams have had an extra week of rest to recover from the previous weeks and have had an extra week for their coaching staff to prepare for an opposing team who has had only one week to game plan. This brings us to oddsmaking 101.
Oddsmaking 101
NFL Oddsmakers base opening lines not solely on statistical numbers, injuries or coaching and player advantages; they also factor in public perception. Our study shows that oddsmakers sap the value of bye week clubs the following week as they understand public perception best, they understand the public's perception of teams coming off bye weeks. In simple English, they know the Public loves to bet on teams coming off by weeks hence they shade line away from that team. Of course, we wouldn't leave you on such a sour note as there is light at the end of the tunnel for many of you bye week lovers. The Commissioner's office always finds ways for you to beat the books.
Team by Team Numbers
The NFL is loaded with talent from top to bottom. LaDanian Tomlinson, Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Brett Favre and so on and so on. Many of these players and coaching staffs have developed ways to taking advantage of the much anticipated time off week.
Over the past 5 years only a handful of these teams exist, nonetheless they are out there and we found them for you. The Miami Dolphins head up the list at 4-0-1 the past 5 years against the spread. They are followed by Philadelphia, Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota and Denver all at 4-1 ATS.
Likewise there are those teams that just cannot get it together after some lazy time off. Heading up this list are the Seattle Seahawks. Mike Holmgren and co. have yet to win a ballgame against the number coming off his teams' bye week the last 5 years. The Seahawks are a dismal 0-5. The Sea Animals are followed by Cincinnati, Green Bay, New York (Giants) Carolina, Atlanta and Indianapolis.
Remember when you're looking at teams that have just had a bye week that it's not an instant recipe for success. Some teams have learned to capitalize on a bye week and some teams have yet to capitalize on the much-needed rest. As always, Bet Sharp, Play Sharp. Bob Aggarwal is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Bob_Aggarwal.htm
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