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Author: Bryan Leonard Article source: http://www.procappers.com/. Used with author's permission.
I like matchups and situational handicapping. This includes such things as strengths against weaknesses, bad lines, homecoming and revenge spots. I'm not big into betting trends. Trends can be dangerous. Some novice sports bettors think, "This team has lost 3 straight against the number, they're more likely to cover this game." Well, you had better have more reasons on your side to back a team than just something like that.
For instance, Rice is well coached under Ken Hatfield, a guy who knows how to teach and gets the most out of what he has. The last few years Hatfield has recognized that he doesn't have the skill position speed to institute the spread offense, so Rice employs an option-oriented running offense. The Owls started this season 0-3 SU/ATS, getting smoked on the road by UCLA, Texas and UAB. Anyone thinking they were "due" for a cover lost their money in Game 4 as Rice lost 41-28 at East Carolina as a +5 dog.
Then Rice came home to play Tulsa - it's FIRST home game of the season. That's a fairly brutal schedule. I'm sure there were people jumping on the "due factor" trend bandwagon for Rice in that game. Well, they, too, lost their money as Rice was smoked 41-21 as a +6 home dog. They were bombed again Saturday losing at home to Navy. I'm not suggesting Rice will run the table, losing every game and failing to cover. Chances are they will get a win and cover before the season ends.
But that's the catch for trend bettors: WHEN will this happen? It's impossible to say based solely on the overdue trend factor. Texas is another team that is currently running the table. Not only straight up, but against the spread AND even with their totals. Texas has won and covered every game, and even gone "over" the total in all seven games. But you can't look at that alone and figure the Longhorns will continue to cover and go "over" every game the rest of the season. Nor can you play the due factor and assume they are more likely to not cover or go under the total, simply because it hasn't happened yet.
Successful sports handicapping encompasses so many factors. I would urge everyone to incorporate as much as possible when analyzing games. If you like trends, well, sure trends can offer some value, such as if one team seems to consistently win and cover over a conference rival every year, such as Oklahoma had done to Texas the last five years. Of course, that run came to an end a few weeks ago when a superior Texas team dominated a rebuilding Sooners squad. It's much smarter to look at as many factors as possible, such as home field, weather, playing surface, coaching, strength versus weaknesses and revenge spots. Winning ATS is about sifting through all the pieces and finding several edges in a game, not just one angle. Bryan Leonard is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. http://www.procappers.com
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